Global Society Faces Converging Crises and Disruptions, New Report Warns
The UN’s “Global Foresight Report” identifies emerging threats to human and planetary health, and calls for adopting a new social contract.
Increasing geopolitical instability, proliferation of mis- and disinformation, and declining trust in institutions leads to populist rhetoric and conspiracy theories replacing evidence-based information and science as grounds for decision-making. That in turn handicaps society’s ability to effectively manage emerging environmental and health challenges, from worsening climate breakdown and rising food and water insecurity, to new zoonotic diseases and the release of ancient pathogens from thawing permafrost. Low-lying islands and some coastal zones, arid and scorching-hot inland areas and other sections of the planet become uninhabitable as climate change intensifies, displacing entire communities and creating a massive refugee crisis. New technologies from artificial intelligence (AI) to biological agents to solar radiation modification (SRM) become weaponized, jeopardizing global security as the environmental life-support conditions and social and democratic norms underpinning civilized society continue to deteriorate.
This is not some far-off dystopian scenario from a science-fiction film. It is what could be in store in the coming years and decades absent an intentional course change in society’s operating systems, according to a new UN report.
“The world is already on the verge of what may be termed ‘polycrisis’—where global crises are not just amplifying and accelerating but also appear to be synchronizing. The triple planetary crisis of climate change, nature and biodiversity loss, and pollution and waste is feeding into human crises such as conflict for territory and resources, displacement and deteriorating health,” the report’s executive summary explains.
Titled Navigating New Horizons – A Global Foresight Report on Planetary Health and Human Wellbeing, the report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the International Science Council identifies eight critical shifts that are transforming global society and accelerating the triple planetary crisis, and describes 18 “signals of change” or indications of developments on the horizon that result in potential disruptions. Understanding these changes and threats by applying foresight, or proactive anticipation, is essential for our society to be prepared and equipped to make decisions to avoid disastrous outcomes, the report argues.
“As the impacts of multiple crises intensify, now is the time to get ahead of the curve and protect ourselves from emerging challenges,” UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said in a press release accompanying the report. “By monitoring signals of change and using the foresight approach outlined in this report – including looking outside the traditional environmental space – the world can avoid repeating mistakes of the past and focus on solutions that can withstand future disruption.”
Thinking about the multitude of intersecting and concurrent crises threatening global society and human and planetary health can feel overwhelming, perhaps even paralyzing. But as the report points out, “The good news is that just as the impact of multiple crises is compounded when they are linked, so are the solutions.” Getting out of siloed thinking and approaching issues with an intersectional lens and with an aim for intergenerational equity is key. The report calls for a “new social contract,” which involves listening to traditionally marginalized voices such as Indigenous Peoples and youth and pursuing collective and systemic social change.
The Era of Polycrisis
I won’t go into too much detail on all of the emerging shifts and disruptive indicators laid out in the report – it’s worth taking a look at the full report to get the complete picture – but just to briefly summarize: the eight critical shifts that are fueling the polycrisis include human degradation of nature (including climate destabilization); natural resource competition and scarcity; the rise of AI and digital transformation; persistent and widening inequalities; misinformation, polarization and declining trust; polycentricity and diffusion of governance; a new era of conflict; and mass forced displacement.
This era of polycrisis means that disruptions or “shock events” are increasing in frequency and scale. Already this decade has been one of disruption, starting with the COVID-19 pandemic, then regional wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, energy and economic and inflation crises, and unrelenting and intensifying extreme weather and climate disasters. This “decade of disruption” could escalate into multiple decades of massive disruptions. Some of the emerging threats identified in the report include:
“Ancient lethal virus frozen in the arctic permafrost is released by Earth's warming climate unleashing a catastrophic global health emergency.” (p. 19)
“Unabated climate and environmental change give rise to shift in species ranges leading to new interactions between species that did not previously exist, increasing zoonotic spillovers, ultimately triggering another pandemic.” (p.20)
“Large-scale unchecked chemical contamination and exposure unleashes a global health crisis with devastating effects on young people with impacts on immune function, cognitive health and fertility.” (p. 22)
“Speculative solar geoengineering is widely deployed through large-scale interventions with immediate effects on the Earth's climatic system.” (p. 33)
“Wide use of AI-driven weapons systems that operate without human oversight with machines having capacity to select targets and destroy them without direct human guidance resulting in massive civilian casualties.” (p. 36)
“Large tracts of land become unfit for human habitation due to climate-induced extreme conditions such as wildfires, flooding, air quality, intolerable heat and/or the aftermath of prolonged conflict. Large-scale relocation of entire communities becomes the norm.” (p. 42)
There are other potential disruptions outlined in the report too, such as a rising mental health crisis among youth burdened with eco-anxiety and despair, the privatization of nature and ecosystem services limiting access to healthy environments to the ultra-wealthy, and the prospect of novel bioweapons development and biowarfare.
System Change and a New Social Contract
So, what can be done to stave off this bleak and dangerous future? Are more disasters and disruptions unavoidable, especially given the scale and speed of these converging planetary crises including (but not limited to) the unfolding climate emergency?
“Key to a better future is a focus on intergenerational equity and a new social contract reinforcing shared values that unite us rather than divides us,” the report contends. Think about it – despite all of our differences, in culture, beliefs and ideologies, identities, etc., we are ultimately all human beings, one species with a collective fate. Our species and civilization evolved during a time of global climate stability, and yet humanity’s actions in accumulating wealth and building prosperity through exploitation and extraction – of people and of nature - have led us to this era of polycrisis and the brink of civilizational unraveling. The stable climate upon which human civilization evolved no longer exists, so we are truly in uncharted territory.
Yet, all is not lost. There is much that we can still save. It requires discarding the status quo and embracing, as the report calls for, a “new social contract.” That means elevating the voices of more diverse groups of people including youth, Indigenous Peoples, women, and local communities. The report particularly emphasizes the need to give young people a stronger voice in decision-making.
Another key recommendation is to adopt a new economic framework and metrics for assessing prosperity and wellbeing, a “beyond GDP” approach that takes a more holistic and long-term view. “Placing a new global emphasis on wellbeing metrics rather than pure economic growth will help the transformation needed,” the report states.
If this vision seems too utopian or unrealistic, think about the alternative – staying on our current course that is extremely perilous, unjust, and likely unsustainable. Global leaders from the pope to the UN Secretary-General agree that human society needs a systemic course change.
The report concludes with these words of wisdom: “Change is inevitable. It is up to humanity, the one species that has evolved to the point where it can affect natural processes on a planetary scale, to unite, look forward and ensure that the decisions we make today shape a future that works for everyone, everywhere.”